Market decline

UPS reports earnings consolidating decline in bear market


United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global parcel delivery company set to release results before it opens on Wednesday, July 24.

UPS stocks closed the first half of 2019 on June 28 at $ 103.27, which has become a key part of my proprietary analyzes. The remaining annual risk level of $ 124.81 remains from the first half of the year. The risk level for the second half of 2019 is $ 116.12. The pivot for July is $ 103.65. The third quarter pivot is $ 123.20.

The daily chart shows a “death cross” and the weekly chart has been positive since the week of June 21, when the stock closed at $ 102.17. Basically, UPS is correctly priced with a P / E ratio of 14.57 and a favorable dividend yield of 3.72%, according to Macrotrends.

Analysts expect UPS to report earnings per share of $ 1.93 when it releases results before the opening bell on Wednesday, July 24. Some on Wall Street expect disappointing results on slow revenue growth and higher costs. This includes a slowdown in global growth, particularly due to exposure to China. Others say the stock is valuable and should be bought for the solid dividend.

The daily chart for UPS

Refinitiv XENITH

The UPS daily chart shows the formation of a “death cross” on November 28, when the 50-day simple moving average fell below the 200-day simple moving average, indicating that lower prices are on the way. future. This followed the stock to its December 24 low of $ 88.89.

There was a lower price spread following a negative earnings reaction on October 24. There was a higher price differential on January 31 following a positive earnings response. There was a huge price gap below the shortfall reported on April 25 which quickly precluded the potential “golden cross”. This led to the establishment of the 2019 low of $ 92.65 on May 31.

The close of $ 103.27 on June 28 was an important contribution to my proprietary analyzes. The stock sits between its July monthly pivot at $ 103.65 and its quarterly pivot at $ 107.79. Semi-annual and annual risk levels at $ 116.12 and $ 124.81, respectively. The stock is between its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $ 100.37 and $ 105.83, respectively.

Weekly chart for UPS

Refinitiv XENITH

The UPS weekly chart is positive with the stock above its modified five-week moving average of $ 103.04. The stock is below its 200-week simple moving average, or “mean reversion,” at $ 108.91. The 12 x 3 x 3 Weekly Slow Stochastic Reading is expected to rise to 53.93 this week, from 46.34 on July 19.

Commercial strategy : Buy UPS stocks when weak up to the 50-day simple moving average at $ 100.37 and reduce strength holdings to quarterly, semi-annual and annual risk levels at $ 107.79, $ 116.12 and $ 124.81, respectively.

How to use my value levels and risk levels: Value levels and risk levels are based on the last nine weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual closings. The first set of levels was based on the December 31 closings. The original annual level remains in play. The weekly level changes every week. The monthly level was changed at the end of each month, most recently on June 28. The quarterly level was also changed at the end of June.

My theory is that nine years of volatility between close is enough to assume that all possible bullish or bearish events for the stock are factored in. a level at risk. A pivot is a level of value or a level of risk that has been violated in its time horizon. Pivots act like magnets that have a high probability of being retested before their time horizon expires.

Disclosure: The author has no position in any of the mentioned stocks and does not intend to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.