Market decline

Falling stock markets are always an opportunity

BREAKING NEWS: US Evacuates Ukrainian Embassy Staff.

BREAKING NEWS: Biden suddenly considering sending in troops?

When the market goes down, we go up!

Troubled stocks.

Restrictions are starting to be reintroduced from China to New Zealand.


These are big drops we’ve had in the US and Australian markets.

The denouement of Bitcoin nonsense is also a welcome development. My long-term view that Bitcoin could go to the moon but end up at zero, remains my central long-term theme there.

The reason I bring it up here is that we are seeing a widespread unwinding of tulip bulb style markets. This is exactly what one would expect from a potentially entrenched long-term sustainable adjustment.

Breaking news, confirmation of the evacuation of non-essential personnel and all families from the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, and the consideration reported by The New York Times by Biden tonight to put troops on the ground , are both potential catalysts for further declines in the stock market.

My Keep It Simple message to buy US Dollars, sell Euros, sell Australian Dollars, buy Gold and of course keep selling stocks also remains in place.

The Markit Global Economic Data Series isn’t one of my favorite data sources, but the IHS Markit PMI data for Australia today was all in line with what I had been expecting for a time. Australia’s economy is in much more trouble than most people imagine. And in a sustainable way in the longer term too.

It’s shaping up to be an interesting week. Expect some volatility, but the dominant risk remains lower for equities.

Toyota also said it expects semiconductor shortages to remain a problem until at least 2024. The big correction in the tech sector may still have a lot to do.

AUS200 Collapse entrenched

Australian services

IHS Markit Services PMI is down sharply.

Australian manufacturing

IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI backfires dangerously.

Eurozone consumer sentiment

Well below pre-Covid levels and suggests the best of the recovery phase is now behind us as far as Europe is concerned as well.