Market decline

Decline of the Tesco Bucks market; Grocery inflation on the rise

The latest figures from Kantar show that take-out grocery sales fell 1.9% in the 12 weeks leading up to Oct. 31, though they are still 7.3% higher than pre-Kantar levels. pandemic in 2019.

The data suggests that the buying habits established during the crisis are starting to settle at a new base. The general trend of larger and less frequent trips to the supermarket looks set to continue, with consumers still making 40 million fewer trips per month than they were in 2019.

Online sales have also stabilized. For the second consecutive month, digital sales represented 12.4% of the total grocery market.

Meanwhile, as manufacturers and retailers have reported in recent months, prices in the industry are rising as raw material and logistics costs rise. Kantar data shows like-for-like food price inflation over the past four weeks has hit 2.1%

It is suggested that buyers could now start looking for better value with Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, commenting: “Grocery store prices are going up and inflation this month. hit its highest rate since August 2020, when retailers were still cutting. promotions to keep stock on the shelves.

“As prices increase in some categories, we can expect shoppers to continue to visit several supermarkets and shop around for the best deals. Already, households visit an average of 3.3 supermarkets per month in order to find the best value for money.

However, buyers still seem keen to make the most of key milestones on the calendar this year. McKevitt said, “After a difficult 18 months, consumers are gearing up for bigger and better celebrations. Unrestricted Halloween drove pumpkin sales up 26% in the four weeks leading up to Oct. 31, and with the return of stuff or treats, seasonal candy was up 27%.

“With Christmas commercials earlier than ever and Christmas inventory on the shelves, we want to prepare early this year so that we can dive head first into the festivities. 4.7 million households bought tarts this month. Customers also get a head start on their purchases for the big day itself. Frozen poultry sales are 27% higher year-on-year, with people spending an additional £ 6.1million in the past four weeks. 1.6 million households also bought their Christmas pudding this month, 400,000 more than last year.

Looking at individual retailer performance, Tesco weathered the broader market downturn and was the only retailer to achieve year-over-year growth this period with sales up 0.3% over the course of the period. 12 weeks. Almost three-quarters of the population made a trip to Tesco in the past three months, helping the retailer gain market share for the tenth month in a row and increase its market share by 0.6 percentage points to 27 , 6%.

While Lidl’s sales remained flat from a year ago, the discount market edged the market to increase its share by 0.1 percentage point to 6.2%. Aldi also increased its share of total grocery sales by 0.1 percentage point and now has 7.9% of the market.

Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons and Waitrose all lost market share, while Iceland’s and Ocado’s remained stable.

NAM implications:
  • “Already, (worried?) Households visit an average of 3.3 supermarkets per month in order to find the best quality / price ratio.
  • Customers also get a head start on their purchases for the big day itself.
  • that is to say that frozen poultry sales are 27% higher year on year …
  • With a sales increase of 0.3% in the 12 weeks, Tesco was the only retailer to achieve year-over-year growth!
  • But note the 12.5% ​​increase of Lidl compared to 2019….
  • … and Ocado + 36.7% in 2019.


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